Tuesday, January 18, 2011

The Best Players of All Time at Hitting a Baseball

By Charles Barnard


Athletics have always been an important part of human civilization. In the development of our country sports have played an important part in the social evolution of our populace. There is no sport that has had a greater impact on the psyche of the American citizen than baseball. From Christy Mathewson to Roger Clemens, from Babe Ruth to Albert Pujols, Americans have had a love affair with the game and its heroes. Of all the heroes and their legends the most talked about are those who were the best at hitting a baseball. Ruth, Cobb, Williams, Dimaggio, Hornsby, Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Gehrig, Bonds, McGwire, and Ripken are names that that are forever part of American folklore.

Hitting a baseball is arguably the most difficult feats in all of sports. Players that have done it well have earned fantastic incomes and often legendary status in American culture. In the modern era, every team has hitting coaches and sometimes sports psychologists to help players improve their hitting. They have video and computers to help break down and analyze every at bat, indeed, every pitch. They have strength and conditioning coaches to help them maintain a level of strength, and fitness that will allow them to excel over long periods of time. Yet, with all this technology and knowledge are hitters today better than hitters of yesteryear.

Most programs being sold today to improve a player's ability at hitting a baseball consistently and with power focus on the mechanics of the swing. Little attention is given on the mental part of this endeavor. The time that is spent on the mental aspect is superficial and doesn't fully understanding the complex role the human mind playes in athletic performance. Many former players become hitting instructors regardless of whether they know how to teach hitting techniques that result in improved performance. The entire hitting process is rather complex and even the best coaches don't fully understand it. Having been a player for 40 years, but never an accomplished batter, I became curious how much I could have trained my mind and body to have reached higher levels. Could I have overcome any physical limitations I may have been born with to become a major league player? I believe I could have. I decided to put my training in Neuro-Linguistic Programming, Advanced Behavioral Modeling, Time-Line Therapy, and hypnosis and as well as my years of teaching and coaching children to use to develop a holistic approach to hitting a baseball.

I wanted to develop an improved training program for hitting so I had to create a model by discovering what common traits the greatest hitters in history had or have. I had to learn what their beliefs and values were as well as what internal strategies they used when hitting. Lastly, I had to model their swings. I wanted to develop a successful training model so I had to learn from the best of the best. The selection process had to be rigid because the larger my pool of "experts" the more watered down the model becomes. To have the best mental training program for hitting a baseball I had to research the best.

Who are the best hitters ever to play the game? That question has been debated for generations. Every fan has their favorites and legitimate arguments for whether Ruth or Williams, Mantle or Mays, or any other players were the best ever. I was not interested in determining the best player, only the best hitter. The first phase of the research was to determine who the best hitters of all-time are.

Every time a hitter steps to the plate his role is to help his team generate a run. There three primary means a batter can create runs or help to create runs for his team. First, a hitter needs to be able to get on base via a hit, walk, or hit batter. The second way is to move a baserunner along the base paths. A hitter can move runners with sacrifice flies, bunts, base hits, extra base hits, hitting behind runners, walks, and hit by pitches. The final way is by moving yourself into scoring position or by scoring yourself. Players can do that by getting doubles, triples, or homeruns or by stealing bases. Bill James developed a mathematical method for figuring out how many runs a player generates for his team. There are three different versions of the formula. The most complete version includes sacrifice flies and hits, hit by pitches, stolen bases, caught stealing, and grounded into double plays, among the more traditional batting statistics. The latter formula is fine for players who played after 1953. The second formula includes stolen base data, which works well for hitters whose careers were post 1950 in the National League and 1913 in the American League. Even if you didn't use all that data either version 2 or 3 could be used depending on the time frame the hitters career included. The formula is an important tool because it factors in the ability of players to move runners along the base paths with outs or hits and walks. It also includes the ability of a player to get into scoring position by means of the stolen base. I decided there were other statistics to consider. The more tradition batting statistics are used in the runs created formulas but I decided I also wanted to consider them separately. It does mean I am counting them twice, but I was still treating all players equally. Batting average, slugging percentage, and on base percentage are the big three when it comes to batting statistics. The final stat I decided to consider was number of strikeouts. A player doesn't strike out much has the amazing ability of consistently putting the ball into play and that is the most fundamental aspect of hitting.

In selecting my experts I understood that every baseball era was unique. For example, I needed to find a way to compare the dead ball era to other eras. The only fair way to compare players between eras was to compare the statistics of the players to the average player during their career. There have been many changes in baseball over the past century that have impacted hitting. The list would includes night baseball, artificial turf, domed stadiums, plane travel, longer seasons, and the lower pitching mound. Most observers agree that modern day athletes are bigger, stronger, faster, quicker, and generally healthier than athletes of past generations. If these athletes of the past lived in the modern era there is no reason to assume they wouldn't have compared as favorably today given all the modern training regimens. Shoeless Joe Jackson provides a justifiable reason that comparing players to their contemporaries was critical. People who saw him play talked about how complete a player he was. His power and speed were second to none during his day. Playing in the dead ball era would make it difficult to determine how much power he had unless we compared him to his peers. When we do that his statistics give us some indication of the power he had.

I couldn't analyze every player so I looked at hall of famers and top ten career leaders in the major statistical categories I already mentioned. If a player should have 4500 at bats at a minimum because that would not disqualify you for the hall of fame; there are hall of famers with fewer at bats. Furthermore, 4500 at bats represents 9 years of 500 at bats providing enough data for a reasonable statistical analysis. Players were compared to the average player of their generation. The average player's score was a 100. In four of the five statistical categories to be better than average you would have a score higher than 100. In the strikeout category you actually wanted to be less than 100 as you wanted to have fewer strikeouts than the average player. Each hitter was awarded points based on how far above the league average they were and lost points for each point below the league average they were. I gave the top 10 in each statistical category exta points to help narrow down the field. If a player was ranked number one he received 100 points and if he ranked number 10 he received 10 points. Next I determined a cutoff point to be considered part of my expert group. If a player were 10th in the five statistical categories he would have had 280 points. The 280 points became my cutoff point. Thirteen players made the cut and became my experts.

I did question how far back I should look to get my experts, from the very beginning or just since integration? Most fans understand that if baseball was open to all races for its entire history the statistics of the players prior to integration would not have been as good because had the best from every race been able to compete a percentage of those who did play would have been replaced by better players. That would have moved the average player to a higher statistical level and moved the elite hitter to a slightly lower plateau. It is also true that the increased population today provides more athletes to select from but it is also true that professional football and basketball are far more popular today then in the first half of the last century and draw off talent that used to go to baseball. I did not need to concern myself with those arguments because I wasn't interested in which era the players were better. My purpose was to help me select a group of experts using statistics as a guide.

The thirteen players, in order, are Rogers Hornsby, Ted Williams, Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds, Joe Jackson, Albert Pujols, Tris Speaker, Tony Gwynn, Lou Gehrig, Ty Cobb, Mickey Mantle, Nap Lajoie, and Stan Musial. These are not necessarily the best overall players but were the best hitters. Yes, there are great hitters left off, but of course that is the case when you are trying to find the best of the best. Of these players six played most or part of their careers after integration.

I could not have had access to all of those players and nothing would replace a one to one thorough modeling session. I did have video recordings, books, and articles to use in the process. There is no more of a complete model is than this one.




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